Towards Copenhagen

Why the climatic conference in Denmark meeting is so important for the future of humanity.

Bikes available for free for the participants of Cop-15 to try out the symbol of transportation for the Danish capital.

Since last Sunday, Dec 7, representatives from 192 nations have come together in Copenhagen, under freezing cold weather, trying to prevent the temperature of the planet to increase by 2 degrees. That’s because, according to previsions from IPCC (an agency connected to the UN and which gathers more than one thousand scientists from all over the world), if, until 2100, our planet heats more than 2 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era, the world is fated to fail: more droughts where already there is drought, strong rains and their frightening consequences, lack of food, extinction of species and the submersion of cities and even of countries, due to the melting of the ice caps and the increase on the sea level.

The great expectative around the 15th United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which lasts until December 18th in the Danish capital, firstly concerns one fact: two years ago it was agreed that during this conference it would be decided what to do after 2012, when the first phase of the Kyoto Protocol ends, the document that foresaw the compulsory reduction on greenhouse effect gas emissions by developed countries (know further in “Kyoto Protocol”, further on this post). What happens is that the protocol was written in 1997 and ratified in 2005. Since then, the situation got worse – maybe that is the reason why this Cop is so different from the others.

In 2007, IPCC published its fourth and most fearsome report, with one data considered at least instigating: for the global temperature not to increase more than 2 Celsius degrees, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere must be at most 450 ppm (parts per million). For that to happen, the general emission of CO2 this century must not exceed 18 gigatons per year. What happens is that, the current average surpasses 40 gigatons/year. Therefore, even if the wealthy countries made their emissions reach zero (that is, if they extinguish their industry, ceasing to cultivate food, to raise animals, to generate electrical energy, in short, deleting the human activities from their territories), we would see the global temperature still growing more than recommended. So, the developing countries also need to contribute. But by how much? In a voluntary or compulsory way? That is one of the main axes of negotiation occurring now in Copenhagen and which can lead to different paths, through changing, or even avoiding, the Kyoto Protocol and the construction of a new document containing more aggressive goals and the participation of more countries.

Who gives more

Look at the goals to reduce the greenhouse effect gas emissions announced before Cop-15 by different countries. Notice that the metrics aren’t all the same, which just makes it confusing. At least one thing is common in all the cases: the deadline, 2020.

Japan and Russia 25% in relation to 1990 levels;
China* 40% and 45% of reduction of the intensity of carbon by GDP unit in relation to 2005;
European Union 20% in relation to 1990 levels;
India 20% and 25% of reduction of the intensity of carbon by GDP unit in relation to 2005;
United States 17% in relation to 2005 levels;
Brazil 36.1% and 38.9% of reduction of the intensity of carbon by GDP unit in relation to 2005.
*China’s goal, actually, is a decoy. To reduce by 40% and 45% the intensity of carbon by unit of GDP in relation to 2005, as their economy only increases, in the end means: “we promise to duplicate our emissions until 2020”. Follow here this math.

What will cause a stir at Cop-15

Know the topics quoted as the most relevant at this conference.

Mitigation: the reduction on Greenhouse Effect Gas emissions. IPCC recommendation is clear: the developed countries should reduce their emissions, in relation to the levels of 1990, between 25% and 40% until 2020 and between 85% and 90% until 2050. But, for now, every country has proposed their own goal, using several logics. It will be necessary to reach a common sense. Another question is: currently, only wealthy countries have committed formally to reduce emissions. Will that change? Will polluting developing country, such as Brazil and China, adopt compulsory goals at the convention?

Adaptation: many countries, especially the poorer, are already suffering with the consequences of global warming and need to adapt to it. For that to happen, money coming from wealthy nations is required.

Financing and technology transference: the developed countries ought to pass money and technology onto developing countries, so they can take their mitigation and adaption actions. The World Bank estimates that 400 billion dollars a year will be necessary in order to allow developing countries to face the climate changes. Another concern of developing countries is that the wealthy nations also commit themselves to long term financing.

REDD: word by word, Reduce Emissions for Deforestation and Degradation. In practice the idea is that the preservation of forests counts as reduction of emissions. After all, by not deforesting you’re not emitting pollutants. Even though it isn’t recognized by the convention, for now there is still no market to commercialize REDD, by selling of carbon credits. Brazil has full interest in this mechanism. After all, 75% of its emissions come from deforestation, especially in the Amazon. And, recently, the country released an ambitious goal to reduce 80% of its deforestation until 2020.

Cop what?

It was on the early 90s when world leaders became aware of the fact that the Greenhouse effect gases (such as CO2 and methane) emitted by human activities – industry, energy and deforestation – were causing the warming of earth. It was decided then to create a world agency to control the situation. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was born that way, and it was signed by the first countries, also called parties, at Eco-92 in Rio de Janeiro.

The text of the convention foresees all the principles guiding the international negotiations around global warming and stipulates that, every year, the signatory countries get together to check what has been made (and to raise new suggestions to put the convention into practice). Then, in order to check on the convention (ha!) the conferences come up. Technically speaking, they are called Conferences of the Parties, the Cops. The gathering occurring now in the capital of Denmark is its 15th edition.

Kyoto Protocol

For those who do not remember it, the Kyoto Protocol was created in 1997 and was ratified in 2005, with signatures of several nations of the world, including Brazil and excluding (with great controversy) the United States, the greatest polluter per person in the planet. The document foresaw a commitment by 37 developed countries to reduce their greenhouse effect gas emissions by 5% in relation to 1990 levels. Based on the principle of common (yet differentiated) responsibilities– which determines that countries which historically have emitted the most, i.e. the industrialized, must pay the larger bill – the developing countries didn’t get a compulsory reduction quote.

And what have we to do with that?

How can people, as regular citizens, interfere in mega world decisions like those? During his opening ceremony speech, the Prime Minister of Denmark, Lars Loekke Rasmussen, affirmed that the responsibility for what happens at Cop-15 pertains to the society in general, more than to governments and scientists. Never been seen before in the history of the Cops, this edition attracted 34 thousand applicants, 20 thousand just by representatives of NGOs. And what are all these people doing there? The Brazilian delegation, for example, is the biggest at Cop-15. It’s about 700 people, 100 of them directly connected to the government. The other 600 are distributed among representatives of NGOs, businesspeople and from other realms of society. How will these people act during the meeting? What is their power of influence on the discussions and decisions that will be taken in the rooms? How can governments and citizens get closer in a global event of such scale? And how can we have more sustainable cities that really allow us to exercise our citizenship? It is with these ideas in mind that we are leaving to Copenhagen, from where we will be sending the news. Follow them here.