Cop-15 Scenes

A kilometric queue at the Bella Center entrance, the conference center where Cop-15 is taking place, today in the morning. The average waiting time to get your identification badge is 4 hours freezing outside.

Luckily, the Association of Aeolic Energy Producers offered free cappuccino and hot cocoa for those in the line.

That isn’t an H&M winter bazaar, but the Bella Center’s cloakroom. By the amount of coats it is possible to understand why this Tuesday the entrance of people will be restricted.

Our Minister of Environment, Carlos Minc, in an interview. The world leaders’ arrival heated things up at the Bella Center today. The place was full.

Respect to religiosity or “if things get tough, all that is left for us to do is kneel and pray”?"

What happened during the first Cop-15 week

Here is a short brief about what has happened during the first week of Cop-15, so you can understand a little about the event dynamics: at first, the negotiators and articulators attend the event (know here who those from Brazil are). There are many debates and discussions that must result in documents to be worked on by the ministers and heads of state, who arrived last week (Lula, for example, will speak on December 17th. Obama will be there on the18th), when the so called high level negotiations begin. But as Cop-15 is atypical, the first week has also caused a stir. Even from Brazil, I could follow what was happening in Copenhagen by Internet. Following is a short brief with the hottest subjects, so you can be prepared for next week.

The non-document from Denmark

The first bomb has fallen in Copenhagen on Tuesday when the British newspaper The Guardian published a text from a non-official document attributed to the government of Denmark, with support by United Kingdom and USA, which outlines a proposition for an agreement even before the negotiations begin. The text has suggested that developing countries should assume compulsory goals to reduce the emissions, not allowing them to emit more than 1.44 tons of carbon per head until 2050, as the wealthy countries could emit 2.67 tons, that is, almost double. The text has caused rage among the developing countries. China reacted articulating with countries from G77 to write another document. (Read here a good analysis about this mess).

An archipelago on the Pacific stops the Cop

At the Bella Center, where the conference takes place, there have also been protests. Representatives from the African civilian society ran trough the corridors yelling that “2 degrees were suicide”. They want to reach a consensus that the temperature of the planet can increase at most 1 Celsius degree in relation to pre-industrial levels until 2100. The archipelago of Tuvalu is another one suffering the consequences of global warming and runs the risk of being vanished from the map. On Tuesday, the country has asked for temporary suspension of the negotiations due to a deadlock: the lack of consensus regarding its request to create a group to discuss its proposition, presented six months ago, for the new stage of the Kyoto Protocol. There were manifestations in the corridors to support Tuvalu. On Friday, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) presented that proposition, which would result in the creation of a Copenhagen Protocol, including the USA on the goals of reduction.

United States sets foot

Yet on the beginning of the week, finally, the USA, through its environmental agency, EPA, has assumed what the entire world already knew: the greenhouse gases emitted by human activity are warming the planet. That was a first step. But from the middle of the week, the main North-American negotiator, Todd Stern, made clear that his country denies the idea of historical responsibility, by which the countries that have emitted pollutants in the course of time hold more responsibility on the global warming. The argument is that, until then, these effects weren’t known. The negotiator has also affirmed that the USA wouldn’t accept a proposition that does not include developing countries and that is not possible to work with a maximum goal of increase in temperature by 1.5 degree Celsius, proposed by some countries. “We have to mix science with pragmatism”, he declared.

First base-text for an agreement

On Friday morning, the first preparatory document for the next week negotiations was released. It’s about a seven-page-file, quoted to be the basis for an agreement, developed by the Long-term Cooperative Actions group – most known by its acronym: AWG-LCA-, which is co-run by the head of the Brazilian negotiations, Ambassador Luiz Alberto Figueiredo. (At Cop-15 there is still another working group, the AWG-PK, which takes care of the Kyoto Protocol). Examples of what the document points: global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 50%, 85% or 90% until 2050; reduction on the emissions by developed countries between 25% and 40% in relation to 1990; for developing countries, diversion of the increment of emissions between 15% and 30% in relation to what would be emitted in 2020 if anything isn’t done. The document, which also raises the possibility of limiting Earth’s maximum temperature in 1.5 degree Celsius, wasn’t very welcomed by the USA and Japan, according to a story of yesterday by the newspaper O Estado de São Paulo.

Upgrade on the European Union goal

Still on Friday, the European Union announced the increase on its goal to cut emissions, from 20% to 30% in relation to 1990 levels. It also talked about the passing of funds to developing countries. 7.2 billion Euros distributed throughout the next 3 years. According to the newspaper O Estado de São Paulo, this represents 30% of the calculated needed amount for that period of time.

Towards Copenhagen

Why the climatic conference in Denmark meeting is so important for the future of humanity.

Bikes available for free for the participants of Cop-15 to try out the symbol of transportation for the Danish capital.

Since last Sunday, Dec 7, representatives from 192 nations have come together in Copenhagen, under freezing cold weather, trying to prevent the temperature of the planet to increase by 2 degrees. That’s because, according to previsions from IPCC (an agency connected to the UN and which gathers more than one thousand scientists from all over the world), if, until 2100, our planet heats more than 2 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era, the world is fated to fail: more droughts where already there is drought, strong rains and their frightening consequences, lack of food, extinction of species and the submersion of cities and even of countries, due to the melting of the ice caps and the increase on the sea level.

The great expectative around the 15th United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which lasts until December 18th in the Danish capital, firstly concerns one fact: two years ago it was agreed that during this conference it would be decided what to do after 2012, when the first phase of the Kyoto Protocol ends, the document that foresaw the compulsory reduction on greenhouse effect gas emissions by developed countries (know further in “Kyoto Protocol”, further on this post). What happens is that the protocol was written in 1997 and ratified in 2005. Since then, the situation got worse – maybe that is the reason why this Cop is so different from the others.

In 2007, IPCC published its fourth and most fearsome report, with one data considered at least instigating: for the global temperature not to increase more than 2 Celsius degrees, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere must be at most 450 ppm (parts per million). For that to happen, the general emission of CO2 this century must not exceed 18 gigatons per year. What happens is that, the current average surpasses 40 gigatons/year. Therefore, even if the wealthy countries made their emissions reach zero (that is, if they extinguish their industry, ceasing to cultivate food, to raise animals, to generate electrical energy, in short, deleting the human activities from their territories), we would see the global temperature still growing more than recommended. So, the developing countries also need to contribute. But by how much? In a voluntary or compulsory way? That is one of the main axes of negotiation occurring now in Copenhagen and which can lead to different paths, through changing, or even avoiding, the Kyoto Protocol and the construction of a new document containing more aggressive goals and the participation of more countries.

Who gives more

Look at the goals to reduce the greenhouse effect gas emissions announced before Cop-15 by different countries. Notice that the metrics aren’t all the same, which just makes it confusing. At least one thing is common in all the cases: the deadline, 2020.

Japan and Russia 25% in relation to 1990 levels;
China* 40% and 45% of reduction of the intensity of carbon by GDP unit in relation to 2005;
European Union 20% in relation to 1990 levels;
India 20% and 25% of reduction of the intensity of carbon by GDP unit in relation to 2005;
United States 17% in relation to 2005 levels;
Brazil 36.1% and 38.9% of reduction of the intensity of carbon by GDP unit in relation to 2005.
*China’s goal, actually, is a decoy. To reduce by 40% and 45% the intensity of carbon by unit of GDP in relation to 2005, as their economy only increases, in the end means: “we promise to duplicate our emissions until 2020”. Follow here this math.

What will cause a stir at Cop-15

Know the topics quoted as the most relevant at this conference.

Mitigation: the reduction on Greenhouse Effect Gas emissions. IPCC recommendation is clear: the developed countries should reduce their emissions, in relation to the levels of 1990, between 25% and 40% until 2020 and between 85% and 90% until 2050. But, for now, every country has proposed their own goal, using several logics. It will be necessary to reach a common sense. Another question is: currently, only wealthy countries have committed formally to reduce emissions. Will that change? Will polluting developing country, such as Brazil and China, adopt compulsory goals at the convention?

Adaptation: many countries, especially the poorer, are already suffering with the consequences of global warming and need to adapt to it. For that to happen, money coming from wealthy nations is required.

Financing and technology transference: the developed countries ought to pass money and technology onto developing countries, so they can take their mitigation and adaption actions. The World Bank estimates that 400 billion dollars a year will be necessary in order to allow developing countries to face the climate changes. Another concern of developing countries is that the wealthy nations also commit themselves to long term financing.

REDD: word by word, Reduce Emissions for Deforestation and Degradation. In practice the idea is that the preservation of forests counts as reduction of emissions. After all, by not deforesting you’re not emitting pollutants. Even though it isn’t recognized by the convention, for now there is still no market to commercialize REDD, by selling of carbon credits. Brazil has full interest in this mechanism. After all, 75% of its emissions come from deforestation, especially in the Amazon. And, recently, the country released an ambitious goal to reduce 80% of its deforestation until 2020.

Cop what?

It was on the early 90s when world leaders became aware of the fact that the Greenhouse effect gases (such as CO2 and methane) emitted by human activities – industry, energy and deforestation – were causing the warming of earth. It was decided then to create a world agency to control the situation. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was born that way, and it was signed by the first countries, also called parties, at Eco-92 in Rio de Janeiro.

The text of the convention foresees all the principles guiding the international negotiations around global warming and stipulates that, every year, the signatory countries get together to check what has been made (and to raise new suggestions to put the convention into practice). Then, in order to check on the convention (ha!) the conferences come up. Technically speaking, they are called Conferences of the Parties, the Cops. The gathering occurring now in the capital of Denmark is its 15th edition.

Kyoto Protocol

For those who do not remember it, the Kyoto Protocol was created in 1997 and was ratified in 2005, with signatures of several nations of the world, including Brazil and excluding (with great controversy) the United States, the greatest polluter per person in the planet. The document foresaw a commitment by 37 developed countries to reduce their greenhouse effect gas emissions by 5% in relation to 1990 levels. Based on the principle of common (yet differentiated) responsibilities– which determines that countries which historically have emitted the most, i.e. the industrialized, must pay the larger bill – the developing countries didn’t get a compulsory reduction quote.

And what have we to do with that?

How can people, as regular citizens, interfere in mega world decisions like those? During his opening ceremony speech, the Prime Minister of Denmark, Lars Loekke Rasmussen, affirmed that the responsibility for what happens at Cop-15 pertains to the society in general, more than to governments and scientists. Never been seen before in the history of the Cops, this edition attracted 34 thousand applicants, 20 thousand just by representatives of NGOs. And what are all these people doing there? The Brazilian delegation, for example, is the biggest at Cop-15. It’s about 700 people, 100 of them directly connected to the government. The other 600 are distributed among representatives of NGOs, businesspeople and from other realms of society. How will these people act during the meeting? What is their power of influence on the discussions and decisions that will be taken in the rooms? How can governments and citizens get closer in a global event of such scale? And how can we have more sustainable cities that really allow us to exercise our citizenship? It is with these ideas in mind that we are leaving to Copenhagen, from where we will be sending the news. Follow them here.